Americans Aren't Rejecting Health Insurance Reform After All

Are Americans really rejecting the Democrats' proposed health insurance reform package? That is the argument being made by Republican leaders, and even echoed in a recent editorial in The Oklahoman. However, a closer look at public opinion polls on the subject tell a very different story.

Now, I'm not sure which surveys to which The Oklahoman is referring. A quick check of Real Clear Politics finds a listing of nine different national polls taken this month. Of these polls the one showing the highest disapproval rate is the Fox News poll (surprise, surprise) that shows a 57% disapproval rate. Four of the nine polls show that less than half of Americans disapprove, with an average of 51%. But if one digs deeper one finds that the opposition is even weaker.

In the Quinnipiac poll finds the approval/disapproval at 36%/53%. Yet the poll also finds that more Americans trust President Obama to handle health care than Congressional Republicans (45%-40%). Furthermore, a whopping 59% agree that Congress needs to take on health care reform now, while only 36% believe nothing should be done. Plus, according to the poll 56% of Americans support the public option and 64% support allowing younger people to purchase Medicare coverage.

The CNN/Opinion Research poll also has some interesting results. They estimate an approval/disapproval rate of 42%/56%. Interestingly nearly a quarter of those opposed to the bill do so not because the bill is too liberal...but "not liberal enough". In other words, 55% of people surveyed in this poll either favor the proposal or favor even stronger health insurance reforms. This number is essentially unchanged in the last month.

The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has a headline approval/disapproval number of 32%/47%. However, when respondents were asked about the specific provisions in the Senate bill 58% expressed approval. Furthermore, more respondents (45%) said they disapprove of removing the public option from the bill than approve of removing it (42%).

The Pew Research poll also shows a strong dislike in its headline number with an approval/disapproval ratio of 35%/48%. Interestingly though, 41% of those same respondents indicate that they will be either "Very Happy" or "Pleased" if the bill passes, compared to 45% saying they would be "Disappointed" or "Angry". This is hardly a wholesale rejection of health insurance reform.

The ABC News/Washington Post poll also shows a general disapproval of the measure with an approval/disapproval ratio of 44%/51%. At the same time though, respondents trust President Obama more than Congressional Republicans (46% to 39%) to handle health care reform. Furthermore, a whopping 66% favor either a public option or government-coordinated private exchanges over doing nothing.

The AP-GfK poll has a headline approval/disapproval ratio of 36%/44%. However, 49% of respondents approve of the way President Obama is handling the health insurance reform issue, compared to 46% who disapprove.

As mentioned above, the Fox News poll is the most negative, but this is not all that unexpected given that they include far more Republicans (38% Republican vs. 38% Democrat and 18% Independent) than the mainstream polls do. Neither Gallup nor Rasmussen provide detailed survey results (at least not for free).

Overall, it is clear that there is not overwhelming support for the Democrats' health insurance reform bills. However, it would be incorrect to state, as Republicans are now doing, that there is overwhelming opposition. In fact, it appears that once the public learns more about how the proposed plan would reduce the number of uninsured by helping people buy insurance from private companies, would crack down on abusive insurance company practices, and would reduce the national debt by $130 billion over the next ten years...it is the Republicans who will suffer the electoral consequences for their obstinance.

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Are Equalization Board Forecasts Too Pessimistic?

This last week the State Equalization Board released their latest estimates for FY 2010 state revenue along with the preliminary proposed revenue certification for Fiscal year 2011, and not surprisingly the news sent budget officials into a tizzy. According to the estimates, the state will take in $1 billion less during the current fiscal year than estimated back in June, and the state will have $1.3 billion less to spend for this upcoming fiscal year.

While the budget news is undoubtedly bad, it might not be as bad as the Equalization Board's numbers indicate. Over the last few days, I have been making my own estimates on the state budget picture...and my numbers are a little (but not much) more positive.

I estimate that Oklahoma's General Revenue collections for this fiscal year will close out at $4.51 billion, which is $100 million higher than the Equalization Board estimates. This estimate assumes a continued weak state economy (personal incomes rising by only 1% before inflation) for the remainder of the year. Furthermore, I estimate that next year's General Revenue collections will total $4.76 billion, which is $309 million higher than the Equalization Board's estimate. While, these numbers still indicate that policymakers face a steep budget hole, my estimates are that the budget hole is nearly $400 million less deep than what the Equalization Board's estimates indicate. Interestingly, my FY 2011 estimates are not all that different from those released a few months back by the Oklahoma Policy Institute, which estimated FY 2011 general revenue would total $4.73 billion--just $22 million less than my estimate.

The big difference in the FY 2010 estimates is that I forecast stronger income tax collections than the Equalization Board does. Not having seen their model, it is impossible for me to explain why this is the case, however I find it interesting that the Equalization Board estimates that FY 2010 income tax collections will total  $1.82 billion. Even under a zero growth assumption for the remainder of the fiscal year though, I estimate income tax collections of $2.14 billion. If I factor in an annualized growth rate of 1.5% (which is still pretty meager growth that is weaker than what we have seen the last two months) my estimate rises to $2.15 billion. I should note that I do estimate weaker sales and other tax collections than the Equalization Board though.

Next year, the differences just magnify. I assumed slightly more robust growth (3% personal income growth), but still pretty weak, and estimate that income tax collections rise to $2.327 billion in FY 2011. Curiously, the Equalization Board estimates that income tax collections will rise by only 1% next year which is consistent with an economy that is still shrinking in real terms as 1% does not come close to keeping pace with current inflation.

Now, I'm not saying that my estimate is right and theirs is wrong. After all, every economic forecast relies upon some ad hoc assumptions, and is as much art as science. However, my interpretation of the latest data tells me that the Equalization Board's estimates are $400 million too pessimistic.

Leonhardt Offers Health Care Compromise

New York Times economics columnist David Leonhardt has a great column today in which he discusses the potential for a health insurance reform compromise among House and Senate leaders. The House of Representatives, needing only a majority of its members to support a bill, has passed a fairly progressive insurance reform bill. The Senate on the other hand, is poised to pass a more centrist bill due to the necessity of securing a super-majority in favor of the bill. An important question is whether the House and Senate leaders can agree on a single bill that satisfies both the progressive House members and the centrist Senators. Yet, as Leonhardt points out, there is room for a reasonable compromise. Let's hope that the House and Senate leadership will be reasonable.

Video: Health Insurance Reform Clears Senate Hurdle

The Facts About Health Insurance Reform

As Congress continues to inch toward passing comprehensive health insurance reform, there are many misconceptions about the plan’s details. To be informed citizens though, we need to know the facts. So, what are the facts that you should know?

First, our health insurance system is broken. Currently, 36 million Americans, including 8 million children, lack health insurance. Not only does this limit health care access to those who are uninsured, but it also results in more than $60 billion annually in uncompensated care—costs that are passed on to insured consumers in the form of higher prices and premiums.

Second, health care costs are spiraling out of control. These costs not only threaten family budgets but the federal budget as well. In the next decade government expenditures for Medicare and Medicaid will nearly double, crowding out spending on other important government programs. Furthermore, soaring health care costs makes health insurance less affordable, further swelling the ranks of the uninsured.

Finally, there is widespread dissatisfaction at unethical insurance company practices. There have been too many cases where insurance companies have denied claims and dropped coverage when their customers get sick. This has left too many people without access to the health care they need.

As a result of these problems, Congressional leaders have proposed reforms to fix this broken system. For example, the bill introduced by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid—the proposal most likely to resemble the final bill—would reduce the number of uninsured by 31 million, would require insurance companies to cover everyone regardless of health or preexisting conditions, would reign in spiraling health care costs by introducing more competition and efficiencies, and would reduce the national debt by $130 billion over the next ten years.

Still though, opponents are distorting the facts and promulgating several myths about the bill:

Myth #1: This bill imposes a government take-over of our nation’s health care system

Fact: Under this proposal you would still use the same private network of health care providers that you currently use. The government is not going to be providing health care, or dictating what treatments you will receive. The government, in other words, will not in any way come between you and your doctor. In fact, a key part of the Democrats’ plan is the establishment of health insurance exchanges that will allow millions of Americans to have more choices among private health insurance companies—enabling the private market to work more efficiently.

Myth #2: This bill will raise health insurance premiums

Fact: By increasing the insurance options available to families, and reducing the number of uninsured, this bill would actually reduce health insurance premiums. Furthermore, an analysis by MIT economist Jonathan Gruber actually finds that customers who currently purchase individual health insurance will see not only lower prices but also higher quality of insurance as a result of the new competition in the insurance industry.

Myth #3: This bill is unaffordable.

Fact: The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill introduced by Majority Leader Harry Reid would actually reduce the national debt by $130 billion over the next ten years. The fact is that this reform is very affordable and fiscally responsible.

These are the facts. Unfortunately though, the opposition to this bill is being driven more by fear than by facts. While the Senate bill is not perfect, by reducing the ranks of the uninsured, by making health insurance more affordable, by cracking down on unethical insurance company practices, and by decreasing the national debt…this bill represents progress.

The problems with our health insurance system are too troublesome, the suffering of our families is too severe, and the costs of inaction are too high, for us to do nothing. It is time for us to act. It is time for our leaders to lead. It is finally time to pass comprehensive health insurance reform.

Krugman: Pass Health Insurance Reform Bill

Princeton economics professor Paul Krugman has a great column in today's New York Times arguing that progressives should work to pass the health insurance reform bill even if it is imperfect.

But let’s all take a deep breath, and consider just how much good this bill would do, if passed — and how much better it would be than anything that seemed possible just a few years ago. With all its flaws, the Senate health bill would be the biggest expansion of the social safety net since Medicare, greatly improving the lives of millions. Getting this bill would be much, much better than watching health care reform fail.

Amen. Let's not make our zeal for the perfect be the enemy of progress.

Oklahoma Unemployment Rate Falls to 7.0% in November

In more good news about the state of the Oklahoma economy, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports this morning that the state's unemployment rate decreased to 7.0% in November from 7.3% in October. This marks the first decrease in the state's unemployment rate since February 2008, and provides even more evidence that the state economy has finally hit bottom.

The news was not all positive however, as the BLS report also estimates that the Oklahoma economy shed 6,000 jobs for the month, nearly erasing last month's 6,200 job gain. Still though, the fact that the job losses have leveled off in the last two months after nearly a year of decline, is definitely good news.

Obama Administration Inherited Large Deficits

While conservatives are constantly criticizing President Obama for the large federal budget deficits, a new analysis by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities finds that the Obama Adminstration "largely inherited" today's deficits. In fact, the CBPP analysis estimates that only 13% of the FY 2009 budget deficit and 23%of the FY 2010 budget deficit were caused by Obama Administration policies. The image to the left breaks down the various causes and their estimated effects on the budget deficit over the next decade.

There are really five main causes of today's large budget deficits:
1. Economic downturn
2. Financial bailouts
3. War spending
4. Bush tax cuts
5. Stimulus Spending

Of these five, only #5--the stimulus spending from 2009--is the result of Obama Adminstration policies. On the other hand, the financial bailouts, war spending and the Bust tax cuts all occurred under the watch of President Bush. Combined, these three factors accounted for 56% of the FY 2009 budget deficit and 45% of the FY 2010 budget deficit.

With these numbers in mind a cynical person might just think that Republican outrage over budget deficits is just political gamesmanship. But Republicans wouldn't play political games with something as important as this would they?

Oklahoma Personal Income Rises in Third Quarter

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported this morning that Oklahoma personal income rose by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2009. This ranked as the 32nd highest growth rate in the nation. This was the first time in a year that Oklahoma registered an increase in personal incomes.

The news however, is not as positive as one might think. During the same quarter prices rose by 0.7%, meaning that the real purchasing power of Oklahoma families actually decreased during the third quarter. Thus, while today's data is better than we have seen in recent months, it still indicates that the Oklahoma economy remained weak through October.